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Falkvinge: Månad tre av 24

Jag återger här nedan i fullo Rick Falkvinges Facebookpost från tidigare idag, vilket är en väldigt intressant uppradning av ett SHTF-scenarie ur en ekonomisk synvinkel. Många har kritiserat den här 24-månaders-modellen för att vara skrivet av en domedagsprofet, men jag tycker det hela är väldigt insiktsfullt. Och han har haft väldigt rätt om väldigt mycket väldigt ofta, förut.


Some people are calling it a disaster that Greece is missing a payment, and may exit the Eurozone, and they have not been paying attention for the past three years.

Here’s what’s also happening:

Puerto Rico declared default in the Dollarzone yesterday, putting the Dollarzone in roughly the same situation. It’s a small economy, like Greece, but may domino.

Spain, Italy, and Portugal will default as a result of Greece defaulting. The odds of at least one of those three defaulting is overwhelming, and one of them will knock down the other two due to the enormous cross-exposure.

Politicians in France are reconsidering their entire EU membership, and are starting to say they want a better deal. So do politicians in Britain. This is effecively jeopardizing the European Union as a construct.

At the same time, Russia has vastly eased up on its nuclear weapons doctrine and will now readily use small nukes as a deterrent in general, if it perceives conventional weaponry is attacking its territory. This has gone unnoticed by most in Western Europe, whereas Eastern Europe is painfully aware of it.

All of Asia has been living in a complete financial bubble, and as of this morning, Chinext (the Chinese tech stock market) is down 50% from peak just over a month ago. Yes, I wrote ”down 50%”. China has been borrowing heavily against future growth, which isn’t happening: the music has stopped. It’s a small matter of time before China can’t afford to buy more US Treasury bonds, exiting ODIC (Organization of Dollar Importing Countries), which in turn will collapse demand for the US Dollar – and the US Dollar itself in turn, which will make the US of A insolvent, regardless of whether Yellen issues QE4 or not.

Meanwhile, oil – the world’s most critical commodity – fell to half its price six months ago, but the price has been recovering since. However, there’s been an enormous oversupply of oil since, an oversupply that’s just growing, which means that we’re far from a supply/demand equilibrium and that oil prices can be expected to freefall soon again. Wars have been fought over much less.

Were you concerned over a single missed payment? Relax, we’re just in month three of a 24-month collapse scenario. There’s a lot left to play out here, none of it pretty.

It’s not a bad idea to have supplies for a month or two in your home, really.

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